I have been asked by a number of people how all this delegate stuff works and why would Romney and Huckster stick it out when they “really don’t have much of a chance.”
So here is how things shake out:
McCain needs to win @59% of the remaining delegates (@988) to secure the delegate count, not an easy task since he was only able to secure less than 55% of the delegate count on Super Tuesday.
Romney or Huckster would need to pull off a miracle needing to secure 95% and 102% of the remaining delegates respectively.
However if Romney or Huckster were to drop and pledge their delegates to the other…and all the delegates were to go to that candidate…they would only need to secure 25% of the remaining delegates!!!
The numbers are on the side of the conservatives but who would drop? Huckster? Probably not...but if he did most of his delegates would flow to Romney. Romney? Not likely…but if he did would his delegates flow to Huckster…what is the difference between McCain and him? Not much so I’m not sure if the flow would be entirely secured for him.
So that is how the numbers break down and my analysis of things…what do you think?!?
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4 comments to "The Delegate Count"
steveegg says:
It's all a matter of which delegate count you use. I've been using the delegate count from Flip at Suitably Flip has been using, and his base has been CNN's count. Unlike CNN, which at last check had yet to apportion roughly 3/5ths of the delegation, I've tossed all but roughly a dozen of California's delegates into McCain's camp based on Jim Geraghty's analysis (Flip had tentatively given McCain all of California's delegates).
That puts McCain as gaining something north of 60% of the delegates up for grabs last night, and more-importantly, needing less than 40% of the remaining delegates with roughly 720 delegates in his pocket. Worse, the two winner-take-all states in the immediate future (Virginia, the biggest prize in the next 2 weeks at 69 delegates, and DC) are McCain-friendly territory.
gopfolk says:
Yeah I've been flipping many of these numbers around and keep coming up with different scenarios...I stuck with one and ran with it.
Scary thought about the next few WTA states being McCain strong holds...What are we going to do?
steveegg says:
Prepare a Congressional/state guerilla campaign?
steveegg says:
As long as I'm doing analysis, I'll offer a quickie Wisconsin one.
We're much like California, with each of the 8 Congressional districts (3 delegates apiece) being winner-take-all, and the other 16 delegates being a statewide WTA. If Romney stays in, I expect him to only be guaranteed the 1st and 5th Districts, while McCain would be guaranteed the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th. The 6th and 8th are toss-ups.
Whether Romney wins the 6th and 8th, and thus the state as a whole, likely depends on whether Huckabee drops out or stays in. He would have to win both if Huck stays in, while he could possibly afford to lose one if Huck is out. In sum, the best Romney can hope to do in Wisconsin is get 28 of the 40.